The media would have us believe that the 2016 campaign reached dispiriting new lows with the election of Donald Trump even as voter registration in America soared to more than 200 million people for the first time in U.S. history. A feat not equaled by Barack Hussein Obama’s campaign in 2008 or in 2012.
Was it all just rednecks and racists that Donald Trump was able to get registered? A Pew Research study (not a poll) showed that the 2016 election was the country’s most racially and ethnically diverse ever. Nearly one-in-three eligible voters on Election Day (31%) were Hispanic, black, Asian or another racial or ethnic minority, up from 29% in 2012. Much of this change is due to strong growth among Hispanic eligible voters, in particular U.S.-born youth.
According to both of the left leaning sources above, the Democrat party easily out registered the Republican party in expanding its membership base. So how did Trump win? Many say it was that Democrats that supported Bernie Sanders stayed home and others will say that the Labor Union’s rank and file jumped ship and voted for Donald Trump.
I tend to believe the latter.
Liberals were passionate about Bernie Sanders. Anecdotally, Liberals were much more in love with Bernie than with Hillary. But to say that Democrats stayed home just simply was not the case. Nearly 139 million Americans voted in 2016 compared to the previous record high turnout of 132 million in 2008, when John McCain lost to then president Barak Hussein Obama.
Democrats out registered Republicans, the electorate was the most racially diverse, and the turnout was historic. This left many Democrats scraping their heads and wondering “how in the hell did Hillary lose?”
A Gallup Poll bears this out. Trump simply won the messaging war – he didn’t have to acquiesce, or concede his points, or reach across the aisle. Trump just had to be the polar opposite of Barack Hussein Obama.
As you can see from this Gallup Poll, America has been steadily trending more and more Republican during each year of his presidency.
In 2008, Democrats had a 30 state lead on Republicans and by the end of 2015 they had lost their lead and Republicans had gained a 6 State edge. Clearly Democrats personally like Barack Hussein Obama but have resoundingly disapproved of his policies. This is sort of like a once great football quarterback at the end of their career. For example, Brett Farve was extremely popular as a quarterback because of his personality but his performance in his last years was less than admirable.
While Trump had two electors try to jump ship and vote for another candidate, Hillary Clinton had 8 electors jump ship. Of Hillary’s electors, one wanted to cast a ballot for John Kasich and the seven others for Bernie Sanders. Of Trump’s defecting electors one voted for Kasich and the other for Ron Paul. It seems that even more people were disenchanted with Hillary than they were with Trump.
But Hillary won the popular vote, right? She probably did win the popular vote. The entirety of her win came from the state with the most illegal aliens, California. While many in the media were concerned about potential vote tampering by Russia, these media sources neglect the potential for millions of illegals to vote, a much more credible threat of a foreign power was Mexico.
Here is an excellent map that shows the shift by county in Republican registration versus Democrat Registration.
The left and the right alike credit Trumps win to the rustbelt states like Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. These states that have lost a tremendous amount of jobs to foreign competition and were not eager to support Hillary, who once supported the Trans Pacific Partnership. Trumps message of “America First” rang true in these heavily unionized states. The Republican party in Ohio was a stumbling block for Trump, but Conservative grassroots groups and the union rank and file came together as very strange bed fellows to help eek out a win for Trump. As a result, the Ohio Republican party is now under new leadership.
Republicans though can do much better in states like Ohio. There is a tremendous potential for the Republican party to become much more dominant if it becomes more conservative rather than push to become more centrist and moderate. The centrist path that Governor Kasich has taken for the last few years.
While a Gallup Poll spells out that 42% of Ohioans are Republicans or lean Republican versus 42.2% identifying themselves as Democrat or leaning Democrat, 36.5% of Ohioans identify as Conservative and only 20.2% of Ohioans identify as liberals, and 38.6% of the population identifies as moderate. This means that Conservatives have a tremendous advantage over liberals in recruiting members into the party, a 16 point advantage! Ohio truly is a center right state.
What does all of this information mean?
If everything but Ohio were to remain constant, what the Ohio Republican party does over the next four years to recruit Republicans into the party could well mean whether or not President Trump is re-elected. Reaching out to Conservatives and getting them involved in the party needs to be priority number one for the Ohio Republican Party.